ANSP roster prototype: the first results

The first simulations compared summer and winter demand using the same workforce and shift pattern prepared in the earlier parts of this series.

These are modelled results from the historical project. They do not demonstrate achieved operational savings or approve a roster for use.

Part 1 · Part 2 · Part 3 · Part 4

Scenario inputs

The supplied sector-opening history covered two years. The profile described approximately two sectors overnight, increasing to five by 08:00 and returning towards two around 22:00.

Staffing demand used three ATCOs per open sector plus two supervisors. The first scenarios used:

• Nine teams and 81 employees.
• A Morning–Afternoon–Night–Rest–Off–Off (MANROO) pattern.
• A one-month roster period.
• The winter or summer staffing requirements and modelled leave.

Coverage results

The summer simulation left approximately 540 shifts unallocated in the reported result. The lower-demand winter scenario covered the required shifts with the 81 employees and indicated room to examine training in rotation.

The initial summer assessment estimated approximately seven overtime shifts per employee per month to cover the remaining demand. A later distribution chart in the original article reported a maximum of six. The article did not establish that these figures came from the same final run, so they should be read as separate stages of the modelling rather than one consistent roster result.

Overtime assumptions

The scenario permitted additional morning or afternoon duties on either off day in MANROO. An additional night duty could be placed on the first off day only, with the second converted to rest.

These were model assumptions to test against the project’s requirements. They are not a general statement that the resulting pattern complies with every applicable fatigue or working-time rule.

The proposed ten-hour night shift

The client asked the team to assess a ten-hour night duty, taking an hour from both the morning and afternoon duties so staff could finish the afternoon earlier.

The proposed follow-up was to compare coverage, overtime and the duty-and-rest pattern for the same month. The article did not report a completed outcome for that scenario.

What to measure next

The team examined overtime shifts and hours by employee, total hours and the distribution of night duties. The original account reported an average of 4.5 night shifts in the analysis.

Night-duty counts and percentages describe the roster. They do not measure individual fatigue or happiness. Further operational and staff review was needed before adopting any proposed pattern.

See published case studies and methodology for additional examples.